The iPhone 16 isn’t selling as strongly as Apple had hoped
Apple had hoped that new artificial intelligence features would make the iPhone 16 a standout success, but early pre-sale estimates suggest a more subdued response than anticipated.
After experiencing several years of stagnant iPhone sales, Apple needed the iPhone 16 to perform well. The days of dedicated Apple fans eagerly lining up to upgrade their devices seem to be over, and since the introduction of 5G with the iPhone 12, the company hasn’t offered a compelling reason for consumers to make the switch. With the integration of AI features, Apple aimed to reignite interest.
Despite several flashy launch events, it remains uncertain if Apple has effectively communicated the value of these features to consumers. Estimates indicate that Apple sold around 37 million units during the first weekend of iPhone 16 pre-sales, a decline of over 12% compared to last year, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. Notably, demand for the higher-priced iPhone 16 Pro models dropped significantly year-over-year compared to the iPhone 15 launch.
One week into pre-sales, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimated sales slightly higher than Kuo’s at approximately 40 million units. CFRA Research’s Angelo Zino also noted a year-over-year decline based on the initial pre-order data.
More concerning than the overall sales numbers might be the preference consumers show for specific models in the iPhone 16 lineup. Analysts suggest that there seems to be greater demand for the lower-priced iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus models than for the Pro variants, which could impact the average selling price and overall revenue from iPhone sales.
During the first weekend of pre-sales, Apple sold approximately 9.8 million iPhone 16 Pros and 17.1 million iPhone 16 Pro Max units, reflecting declines of 27% and 16% year-over-year, respectively. In contrast, sales of the standard iPhone 16 and the Plus models saw a slight increase compared to the iPhone 15.
According to Zino, the base iPhone models might simply be too appealing. “Given that this is largely a software upgrade cycle, I’m concerned about the sales mix favoring the lower-priced iPhone 16 over the higher-priced models,” he stated. “The standard devices received substantial upgrades in their cameras and processors.”
Kuo also pointed out that delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro models were shorter—1-2 weeks during the first weekend of pre-sales—compared to the 3-4 week wait for the iPhone 15. He highlighted that the much-touted AI features, dubbed “Apple Intelligence,” aren’t yet available on the devices, with rollout planned for next month alongside iOS 18.1. Furthermore, Apple continues to face increased competition in China. Zino suggested that the true value of the new technology may only become apparent to consumers over the next few quarters as word of mouth spreads.
The tepid pre-sale response might indicate that the allure of integrated AI features alone isn’t enough to lift Apple out of its iPhone slump. With limited physical improvements to the camera and screen size, software updates that consumers are skeptical about are likely harder to sell. Many casual Apple fans may not fully grasp why these AI features justify an upgrade.
That said, it’s still early days for the iPhone 16, and sales have continued since the devices became available on September 20.
Moreover, the metrics analysts use to gauge pre-sales may not provide a complete picture. Lead time—the interval between when consumers order and when they receive their devices—is considered a key indicator of demand. Shorter lead times for the iPhone 16 could suggest improved supply chain efficiency, allowing Apple to produce more phones quickly, according to Canalys analyst Lex Chiew. Zino also noted that Apple may have increased supply ahead of the launch to stimulate a strong upgrade cycle with the iPhone 16.
A positive sign came from T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert, who reported to CNBC that the carrier sold more iPhone 16s than it did with the iPhone 15 last year.
Apple will not release specific sales figures until its earnings report next month, which will only cover seven days of pre-sales and ten days of regular sales. Nonetheless, most analysts still expect the iPhone 16 to perform well in the coming months, particularly during the crucial final quarter of the year.
“It’s all about a monster holiday quarter, and we believe the supercycle for the iPhone 16 is just beginning,” Ives told CNN in an email.
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